Choosing arrival process models for service systems: Tests of a nonhomogeneous Poisson process

Service systems such as call centers and hospital emergency rooms typically have strongly time‐varying arrival rates. Thus, a nonhomogeneous Poisson process (NHPP) is a natural model for the arrival process in a queueing model for performance analysis. Nevertheless, it is important to perform statistical tests with service system data to confirm that an NHPP is actually appropriate, as emphasized by Brown et al. [8]. They suggested a specific statistical test based on the Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) statistic after exploiting the conditional‐uniform (CU) property to transform the NHPP into a sequence of i.i.d. random variables uniformly distributed on [0,1] and then performing a logarithmic transformation of the data. We investigate why it is important to perform the final data transformation and consider what form it should take. We conduct extensive simulation experiments to study the power of these alternative statistical tests. We conclude that the general approach of Brown et al. [8] is excellent, but that an alternative data transformation proposed by Lewis [22], drawing upon Durbin [10], produces a test of an NHPP test with consistently greater power. We also conclude that the KS test after the CU transformation, without any additional data transformation, tends to be best to test against alternative hypotheses that primarily differ from an NHPP only through stochastic and time dependence. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 61: 66–90, 2014     

基于数据站场的系统效能评估决策支持方法

随着信息技术的发展,系统信息量的提升给军事系统效能评估带来了新的问题。针对系统效能分析数据非线性、高维数、强耦合的特点,提出了一种基于数据站场技术的效能评估决策支持方法。通过数据恢复、约减、求精与重构操作,对评估数据进行了处理,并搭建了数据站场立方体,降低了数据间的依赖性,满足了不同层面系统分析的需求。以面向任务的网络化火控系统的为例,进行了系统效能评估、时效性评估和指标分析,从三个层次验证了方法的有效性与可行性。将数据挖掘技术应用到仿真系统效能评估决策中,获得了更广泛的应用。     

Counterinsurgency American style: Considering David Petraeus and twenty-first century irregular war

This article examines the complex legacy of David Petraeus who was a key figure in the emergence of the US military shift towards counterinsurgency doctrine in the years after 2006. Although Petraeus has been perceived by critics as a publicity seeker, he can be credited with laying the foundations for a more serious commitment to COIN involving in particular in integrating conventional and Special Forces in arenas like village stability operations. The article looks a Petraeus's role in both Iraq and Afghanistan: it concludes that, in the case of Afghanistan, it is too early to assess whether counterinsurgency has had a decisive impact of the outcome of the war against the Taliban.     

基于旋量方法的高超声速飞行器三维非线性伪最优制导律设计

针对高超声速飞行器制导过程中的通道耦合问题,设计一种基于旋量方法的三维非线性伪最优制导律。引入角度矢量、视线旋量、视线旋量速度等概念,通过等价性证明,得出视线旋量、视线旋量速度控制分别与视线方位、视线角速度控制具有一致性的结论,从而将制导问题转化为视线旋量和旋量速度的控制问题;基于旋量方法构建弹目视线旋量、视线旋量速度模型,构建得到飞行器制导的三维非线性模型;为避免直接求解Riccati微分方程过程的复杂性,引入伪控制变量,将三维非线性制导模型转化为线性制导模型;分别针对无终端约束和有终端约束情况,基于二次型最优方法得到三维非线性伪最优制导律。该制导律避免了通道解耦,其制导参数又满足一定物理意义下的最优性。仿真结果验证了所设计制导律的有效性。     

考虑弹体动态特性的机动效率约束导引律

针对考虑交会角和过载约束导引律在大机动时能量损失大的问题,提出一种考虑导弹机动效率的多约束制导律。应用最优二次型原理推导出考虑一阶弹体延迟的时变导引系数闭环次优制导形式,将导弹机动时刻阻力系数引入时变权系数,并通过迭代确定机动效率约束边界。将时变约束表示成剩余时间与弹体延迟时间的函数,代入制导指令,进行弹道仿真。结果表明,对于常值与机动目标,文中制导律与过载约束导引律同只考虑交会角约束的导引律相比,对目标均能实现末端弹道成型要求,而考虑机动效率的制导指令分配更为合理,在避免指令加速度饱和的同时有效降低了拦截末端速度损耗,提高制导精度与毁伤效果。且该制导律中时变权系数无须配平求解,在保证精度的同时极大地提高了迭代速度。     

机动发射条件下助推滑翔导弹射击诸元快速解算

针对机动发射条件下助推滑翔导弹对全程弹道快速生成的迫切需求,在弹道设计中选取7个关键性控制量参数作为全程弹道射击诸元,并提出与之相对应的诸元解算算法。将全程弹道分为助推段、初始下降段、滑翔段和俯冲攻击段,在统一化运动模型描述的基础上,运用参数化迭代的思路,依次对不同飞行阶段诸元进行了快速求解,满足多种复杂约束条件。在全程诸元迭代解算模式的基础上,提出助推段沿用中心弹道诸元,仅对其他射击诸元进行重计算的部分诸元迭代解算模式。仿真结果表明:采用所提助推滑翔导弹射击诸元快速解算方法,可在大范围机动条件下对远距离地面固定目标进行快速精确打击。     

降落伞主充气阶段数值模拟

建立了降落伞主充气模型。前体、伞绳及伞衣离散为一系列弹性连接的质量节点,伞衣内部流场为二维无粘、不可压流。利用模型计算了主充气阶段伞衣形状变化、伞衣投影面积变化及伞绳张力。计算结果与试验结果进行了比较,相当吻合。     

Higher‐order Markov chain models for categorical data sequences*

In this paper we study higher‐order Markov chain models for analyzing categorical data sequences. We propose an efficient estimation method for the model parameters. Data sequences such as DNA and sales demand are used to illustrate the predicting power of our proposed models. In particular, we apply the developed higher‐order Markov chain model to the server logs data. The objective here is to model the users' behavior in accessing information and to predict their behavior in the future. Our tests are based on a realistic web log and our model shows an improvement in prediction. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004     

弹丸爆炸仿真与破片质量统计软件开发

针对利用试验研究弹丸爆炸过程难度大的问题,采用ANSYS／LS-DYNA有限元软件对弹丸爆炸过程进行了仿真,设计开发了破片质量分布统计软件,再现了弹丸爆炸的宏观过程,并且得到了破片质量分布的定量结果．     

基于外弹道算法的C-RAM火控处理技术

本文针对RAM目标的特点,在敌方射面坐标系建立了目标运动模型,并利用此弹道微分方程建立目标状态方程和量测方程,在得到RAM目标的火控滤波数据后,利用弹道质点运动方程预测求取飞行时间后的目标未来点,从而提高了火控系统对RAM目标的解算精度。通过仿真计算,验证了此处理方法的有效性。该论文的主要内容是从工程实践中的总结,有一定的创新性。